With tomorrow being election day and today being turkey day, I'm not expecting to see a lot going down in the next 24 hours that will radically alter where we're at right now. So it's time for some end-of-the-line thoughts and the fearless predictions.
First, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will be victorious on election night with a stronger minority than they had during the 39th Parliament. This will result in more of the same fractitious politics of the last two and a half years.
Second, Stephane Dion will see his party fare better than expected despite his horrid campaign and poor leadership. I'm not sure if the knives will come out and the Party will start down the path to yet another leadership convention, but they'll need at least 80 seats I think in order for him to keep his job for any length of time.
Third, the sham that has been the Green Party's campaign will result in precisely 0 Green MPs when the 40th Parliament is inaugurated. Elizabeth May will be defeated handily by Peter Mackay, at which time she'll make the argument that under a proportional representation system they'd have achieved true electoral justice. Never mind the fact that they would have lost handily in all 300+ electoral districts. She herself could have been elected had she opted to run to win instead of to run against a very popular incumbent Cabinet minister so that she could get on TV a bunch.
Fourth, the Bloc will see its seat total go down as its slide towards irrelevance continues.
Fifth, Jack Layton and the NDP will see their seat total go up thanks to the aforementioned weakness of the Liberals and, let's be fair to Jack! here, because he ran a pretty good campaign.
I said before this campaign that the result would, in all likelihood, largely be an affirmation of the status quo ante. After a brief flirtation with majority territory, the Conservatives saw that slip away because their leader doesn't speak the language of Canadians, that highly idealistic, give me a hug and it'll be OK, empty rhetoric that not coincidentally has made Barack Obama so popular in this country. When asked about the economy, he spoke like the economist that he is and didn't give Canadians the pat on the head talk that Dion did; for some inexplicable reason, people started to turn to the Liberals in the belief that Dion had a better plan for the economy. It's a good thing that Steve Murphy is such a heavyweight journalist asking the very difficult question (can ya feel the sarcasm?) about Dion's plan or else the madness may have continued until Tuesday. Sociology is a lovely discipline, political science lite in its approach. But we need an economist to get us through these troubled waters, not someone who wants to hold 50 meetings in 30 days to get an idea of what to do. Ultimately, as I've said many times before, if you're happy with the way the last two years have gone as far as Canadian governance goes, your obvious rational choice is Stephen Harper. Government has been less visible, efficient, and made the right decisions more often than not. I vote for more of the same.
Showing posts with label Election 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2008. Show all posts
13 October 2008
10 October 2008
Election 2008: Day 34
"I think that most Canadians will see this as a matter of character that I want to help, I want to do the right thing," Mr. Dion said this morning.
Well that's great that you want to help, but it's glaringly obvious you don't have the first idea how to help. I want a pony, but I don't know how to go about getting one or what I'd do after getting one, so am I really qualified to own a pony?
Now who the one who is out of touch when it comes to the economy? Who is the one that had to be asked three times what he would do about the economic crisis if he were the Prime Minister of Canada right now? And when the answer--mercifully, after much pain and anguish--came it resembled something as jumbled and well thought out as Paul Martin's idea to scrap the notwithstanding clause? Seriously, the napkin that bears the writing from Dion's "plan" should be in a Hall of Fame somewhere right next to the infamous Ray Finkel "the laces were in" field goal kick.
Well that's great that you want to help, but it's glaringly obvious you don't have the first idea how to help. I want a pony, but I don't know how to go about getting one or what I'd do after getting one, so am I really qualified to own a pony?
Now who the one who is out of touch when it comes to the economy? Who is the one that had to be asked three times what he would do about the economic crisis if he were the Prime Minister of Canada right now? And when the answer--mercifully, after much pain and anguish--came it resembled something as jumbled and well thought out as Paul Martin's idea to scrap the notwithstanding clause? Seriously, the napkin that bears the writing from Dion's "plan" should be in a Hall of Fame somewhere right next to the infamous Ray Finkel "the laces were in" field goal kick.
09 October 2008
Election 2008: Day 33
[Candidate X] is "totally out of touch with reality," [Candidate Y] said. "He doesn't understand the impact of this economic turmoil of Canadians' daily lives."
Quick: who is Candidate X and Candidate Y? In this instance, X is Stephen Harper, Y is Stephane Dion. Sense the utter ridiculousness of that statement? A sociology professor with little to no credentials on economics believes that he is better-suited to understand the economy than a trained economist. Say what you will about Harper's lack of connection with the empathy factor in this economic situation, but really, this is where optical politics can rear its ugly head. If people start buying the notion that Dion giving the country a hug is better for the economy than Harper's economic stewardship, we're in a lot of trouble.
Quick: who is Candidate X and Candidate Y? In this instance, X is Stephen Harper, Y is Stephane Dion. Sense the utter ridiculousness of that statement? A sociology professor with little to no credentials on economics believes that he is better-suited to understand the economy than a trained economist. Say what you will about Harper's lack of connection with the empathy factor in this economic situation, but really, this is where optical politics can rear its ugly head. If people start buying the notion that Dion giving the country a hug is better for the economy than Harper's economic stewardship, we're in a lot of trouble.
06 October 2008
Election 2008: Day 30
Today I have witnessed the most pathetic attempt yet made by the Liberals to link Stephen Harper to George W. Bush. Not content with resorting to counterfactual history or mentioning the US President within 8 words of saying Stephen Harper on a daily basis, they have now created a website based on a "Bush/Harper" ticket. We'll conveniently ignore the fact that Bush is not running for political office in Canada and that he's actually going to be out of political office in American in a little more than 3 months. Like I said yesterday, should have held off on calling this election until spring so that hopefully this childish behaviour wouldn't happen, but yet here we are. It's completely below anybody with the ability to conduct rational discourse...which probably explains why the Liberals are resorting to such a desperate sham of a tactic.
05 October 2008
Election 2008: Day 29
We're heading into the home stretch now with only 9 days remaining until Canadians cast their ballots. We've still yet to see the official Conservative platform, though we're told it will be out this week. No doubt, however, somebody will make a terrible gaffe that day and that's all the media will discuss for that 24-hour period, maybe longer if it was caught on tape.
The local campaign has been nothing remarkable at all. Since this thing started up four weeks ago, I've received precisely one phone call--from the Liberals--and no door visits from party candidates looking to earn my vote. There was a call the other day that I passed on Tasha that turned out to be a kid asking if she was supporting the NDP as well, so that makes two. There is nothing particularly special about any of the candidates here, and a lot of folks don't seem all that "into it" as far as the federal campaign goes. It being Nova Scotia I hear a lot of grumbling about Harper but not much else in terms of concrete discussions about actual policy matters. C'est la vie, eh?
It's also still sad to see that there is such hysteria emanating from the Left about the Prime Minister. There's still the reptilian kitten eater sentiment, the "hidden agenda," and so much other reductio ad absurdum going on around him that I have a hard time taking a lot of people seriously when they discuss him. They still bring up the canard that if he were PM in 2003 we would have been in Iraq; um, hello, the last PM also supported the idea at the time, and it was five years ago--if you really can't come up with something more convincing than a 5-year old counterfactual point, maybe he's not that bad after all? I really wish that he had held off on calling the election until sometime in the spring of 2009 because then maybe, just maybe, we'd be able to go a day or two without the inane and deeply passe Bush references. Seriously, what are this country's nutjobs and fearmongers going to do after GWB is out of office? I'm sure they'll find something to run with.
And on that note, it's time to get ready to watch some hockey! 5 days left until the Habs season opener! All for one, and 100 for 25!!!
The local campaign has been nothing remarkable at all. Since this thing started up four weeks ago, I've received precisely one phone call--from the Liberals--and no door visits from party candidates looking to earn my vote. There was a call the other day that I passed on Tasha that turned out to be a kid asking if she was supporting the NDP as well, so that makes two. There is nothing particularly special about any of the candidates here, and a lot of folks don't seem all that "into it" as far as the federal campaign goes. It being Nova Scotia I hear a lot of grumbling about Harper but not much else in terms of concrete discussions about actual policy matters. C'est la vie, eh?
It's also still sad to see that there is such hysteria emanating from the Left about the Prime Minister. There's still the reptilian kitten eater sentiment, the "hidden agenda," and so much other reductio ad absurdum going on around him that I have a hard time taking a lot of people seriously when they discuss him. They still bring up the canard that if he were PM in 2003 we would have been in Iraq; um, hello, the last PM also supported the idea at the time, and it was five years ago--if you really can't come up with something more convincing than a 5-year old counterfactual point, maybe he's not that bad after all? I really wish that he had held off on calling the election until sometime in the spring of 2009 because then maybe, just maybe, we'd be able to go a day or two without the inane and deeply passe Bush references. Seriously, what are this country's nutjobs and fearmongers going to do after GWB is out of office? I'm sure they'll find something to run with.
And on that note, it's time to get ready to watch some hockey! 5 days left until the Habs season opener! All for one, and 100 for 25!!!
03 October 2008
Debate Thoughts
There wasn't much last night that truly stood out as a memorable moment. No knockout blows, some good jabs along the way, but there certainly wasn't anything out of the Opposition parties that would have swayed my vote and I doubt that many undecideds are now ready to park themselves with any particular party.
As I usually do, I like Warren K's analysis: Harper had to play goalie for the whole time, and he did rather well in the role. When there's four people essentially ganging up on you for two hours, it's tough to get in a word edgewise and go on the offensive. He was able to land a nice body blow against Jack Layton, reminding everybody that Layton's been to a private clinic in his day.
There was a lot of guttersniping involved too, as everybody tried to take a turn linking Harper to Bush and the Iraq War. Putting out counterfactual statements, however, isn't remotely prime ministerial, and should be left to people debating over a beer. For his part, Harper did well on the foreign policy stuff (exceedingly limited though it was) and handled the Afghanistan questions well. The NDP leader, as he usually does, was out to lunch on the issue, and Elizabeth May was equally bad. But that's to be expected from the party of nutbars.
All in all, I don't really give the night to anybody, which probably means that Harper wins by default.
As I usually do, I like Warren K's analysis: Harper had to play goalie for the whole time, and he did rather well in the role. When there's four people essentially ganging up on you for two hours, it's tough to get in a word edgewise and go on the offensive. He was able to land a nice body blow against Jack Layton, reminding everybody that Layton's been to a private clinic in his day.
There was a lot of guttersniping involved too, as everybody tried to take a turn linking Harper to Bush and the Iraq War. Putting out counterfactual statements, however, isn't remotely prime ministerial, and should be left to people debating over a beer. For his part, Harper did well on the foreign policy stuff (exceedingly limited though it was) and handled the Afghanistan questions well. The NDP leader, as he usually does, was out to lunch on the issue, and Elizabeth May was equally bad. But that's to be expected from the party of nutbars.
All in all, I don't really give the night to anybody, which probably means that Harper wins by default.
01 October 2008
Harper and the Plagiarism Story
Here's the thing that gets me about this whole issue: why now? If it was so readily obvious that Harper was parroting Howard & Bush, why didn't this get discovered within hours of the speech being made? Why didn't it come out during the 2004 campaign, when a potential leader of Canada marching Canada into Iraq was a much hotter topic, especially given the news reports that if Martin were PM at the time, he would have done the same thing? It's such a non-entity of an issue at this time, at least the Iraq portion of it--we're five-plus years removed from the invasion and overthrow of the vile Saddam Hussein dictatorship. Talking about who would have done what at the time is counterintuitive.
All that said, as an academic I take this type of intellectual dishonesty very seriously. Having sloughed through countless papers and putting through my own original thoughts to an extent that there's a book full of them, the idea of ripping off someone else's ideas is repugnant to me. It would not have taken much to give the credit where credit is due in the course of the speechwriting process. Add in "As Australian Prime Minister John Howard said just this week," to that part of the speech, and you're covered. As it is, the speechwriter has made it appear that the current Prime Minister of Canada is a cheater, a Bush puppet, and too lazy to check his own work. That's very, very bad. Will it resonate? Hard to say.
All that said, as an academic I take this type of intellectual dishonesty very seriously. Having sloughed through countless papers and putting through my own original thoughts to an extent that there's a book full of them, the idea of ripping off someone else's ideas is repugnant to me. It would not have taken much to give the credit where credit is due in the course of the speechwriting process. Add in "As Australian Prime Minister John Howard said just this week," to that part of the speech, and you're covered. As it is, the speechwriter has made it appear that the current Prime Minister of Canada is a cheater, a Bush puppet, and too lazy to check his own work. That's very, very bad. Will it resonate? Hard to say.
26 September 2008
Election 2008: Day 20
It is now the back half of the election campaign, and we are beginning to see the finish line. Depending on where you stand, it's either a great view or a catastrophic view, the proverbial freight train coming towards you when you thought you saw the light at the end of the tunnel. It is apparent that not only is there a strong possibility the Conservatives be re-elected, they may well do so with a majority. Nanos has them at 40% right now, with a 15-point lead over the Liberals. Dion is having to circle the wagons as he's increasingly coming under fire from within his own party ranks, bearing down to protect what the Liberals already hold while the knives start to come out. He will likely, depending on the severity of the defeat, be replaced, the third leadership change since December 2003. There will be no clemency as the Liberals realize they made a tremendous mistake going with the compromise candidate that had less than 1-in-5 support heading into their last leadership convention. Dion is a good man but he has simply been over his head in this position. He was a solid Cabinet minister for Chretien, deftly handling one of the most hot topics of the time. But since he made his own "green shift" and embraced environmental politics as his mantra, he has slipped greatly because Canadians are simply not willing to put their money where their mouths are on this issue.
Is there a chance of a Phoenix-like resurrection? Of course. With a little more than 2 weeks left in this campaign and the Tories still making gaffes as much a part of their routine as a prime-time ad spot, the opportunity to reverse fortunes is still an open window. But it is going to take something major for the Liberals to turn the tide, and that's going to be difficult since they've already released their full election campaign platform (remember when the Red Book was a seminal event?) and the Tories have not. Their cards are all on the table, and when you're all-in with low cards, you need a miracle from the dealer to save you.
Is there a chance of a Phoenix-like resurrection? Of course. With a little more than 2 weeks left in this campaign and the Tories still making gaffes as much a part of their routine as a prime-time ad spot, the opportunity to reverse fortunes is still an open window. But it is going to take something major for the Liberals to turn the tide, and that's going to be difficult since they've already released their full election campaign platform (remember when the Red Book was a seminal event?) and the Tories have not. Their cards are all on the table, and when you're all-in with low cards, you need a miracle from the dealer to save you.
24 September 2008
Election 2008: Day 18
We have a campaign theme for this election. It is the gaffe, specifically, who is making them, how many, and how insensitive/severe/significant are they? The gaffe is a reflection of basic competence and the ability to stay on message. In this day, the message is everything, sayeth the media. The medium is the message. The medium in this election making the most waves is the Internet. From Elizabeth May agreeing with the assessment that Canadians are stupid to a Dipper nutbar smoking 30 marijuana cigarettes at the same time to the daily existence of Stephane Dion to "death by a thousand cold cuts," the predominant thing that has arisen time and again is the gaffe, played endlessly on the Internet. The economy? No. Afghanistan? No. Canada-US relations? No. Good governance? No. This election, so the narrative goes, will be determined by the party that has less foot-in-mouth disease. And that's pretty sad.
23 September 2008
Election 2008: Day 17
Still reeling from the beating the Habs took last night against the Bruins. It's one thing to see your team lose badly on TV, it's something else when it's happening right in front of you. Oh well, it was only a pre-season game; we still beat the tar outta them in April when it mattered! Plus, I got auto's from Josh Gorges, Guy Carbonneau, and Bob Gainey. So that's cool.
Two and a half weeks into the campaign now, and I'm surprised at how little has been said about Canada's place in the world. Afghanistan has been mentioned maybe twice, with one of those times being the Prime Minister's statement that we're out of Afghanistan after 2011. Did that move mean that there's nothing to discuss about Canada's most significant international participation since the Balkans? What about what is to be done in the interim? There's also been very little talk, compared to the 2004 and 2006 campaigns, about Canada-US relations. I'm very surprised that given our two neighbouring countries are having elections within weeks of each other (I do find it hilarious that our campaign started a year and a half later and will be finished sooner) there hasn't been more talk about what Canada-US relations will look like after January 20, 2009. There's been no talk about spiting our neighbour or getting too cozy to the colossus, perhaps because Harper has managed the relationship very well during his time in office, striking the right balance between alliance, friendship, and independence. Something to think about.
Not much else in this campaign worth discussing. The muckracking is at its usual lowness, and it's overshadowing everything else. I haven't yet really gone over the Liberal campaign platform, may do so later today time permitting.
Two and a half weeks into the campaign now, and I'm surprised at how little has been said about Canada's place in the world. Afghanistan has been mentioned maybe twice, with one of those times being the Prime Minister's statement that we're out of Afghanistan after 2011. Did that move mean that there's nothing to discuss about Canada's most significant international participation since the Balkans? What about what is to be done in the interim? There's also been very little talk, compared to the 2004 and 2006 campaigns, about Canada-US relations. I'm very surprised that given our two neighbouring countries are having elections within weeks of each other (I do find it hilarious that our campaign started a year and a half later and will be finished sooner) there hasn't been more talk about what Canada-US relations will look like after January 20, 2009. There's been no talk about spiting our neighbour or getting too cozy to the colossus, perhaps because Harper has managed the relationship very well during his time in office, striking the right balance between alliance, friendship, and independence. Something to think about.
Not much else in this campaign worth discussing. The muckracking is at its usual lowness, and it's overshadowing everything else. I haven't yet really gone over the Liberal campaign platform, may do so later today time permitting.
22 September 2008
The Lengths Some Will Travel...
Over the weekend someone hacked into the Prime Minister of Canada's mailing list and sent a fraudulent, if pathetically amusing, message to all "Average Canadian[s]" who subscribe to the news updates from the PMO. While this is a very serious matter, compromising as it does the information security of the PMO's computers as well as of those people who are on the mailing list, I found it very informative just how easily it seems to be to integrate Canada into the United States and "destroy" Canada's "cherish[ed]" health care system. This is how Stephen Harper, the roaring ALBERTAN, plans to do it:
"by infusing my propaganda with hard core ad hominen attacks."
Who knew that simple words alone could dissolve a sovereign nation and its health care system? All this time I thought it would take a massive constitutional debate, a national referendum, or some form of legislation. But no, apparently all Stephen Harper has to do to make an independent Canada and its health care system vanish is making a TV spot and call Stephane Dion names. We should all be very afraid of this power. He MUST BE STOPPED! Moreover, what if others wield this awesome might to transform a country by mere words, not actions; letters to the editor, not legislation; commercials, not constitutional amendments. Surely we must all be on the lookout for any who possess this power...and smite them.
"by infusing my propaganda with hard core ad hominen attacks."
Who knew that simple words alone could dissolve a sovereign nation and its health care system? All this time I thought it would take a massive constitutional debate, a national referendum, or some form of legislation. But no, apparently all Stephen Harper has to do to make an independent Canada and its health care system vanish is making a TV spot and call Stephane Dion names. We should all be very afraid of this power. He MUST BE STOPPED! Moreover, what if others wield this awesome might to transform a country by mere words, not actions; letters to the editor, not legislation; commercials, not constitutional amendments. Surely we must all be on the lookout for any who possess this power...and smite them.
17 September 2008
Dion and Post-Secondary Education
*deep breath* I just finished defending Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party in the comments section of the news of the PSE announcement at CTV.ca. I have long been a supporter of spending in this area; I've benefited from student loan and bursary programs (wouldn't mind making that debt load disappear, though), so today's announcement by Dion is one that strikes a chord with me and will hopefully provide an impetus for the other parties to announce their plans for post-secondary education. The incredible costs of tuition in this country are making it very difficult for the younger generation (and their parents/families) to find the resources to afford a university or college education. The interest rate on the loans, while significantly lower than any of the major credit cards, are substantial enough that I still see a lot of the money I pay on a monthly basis being applied to that interest instead of the principal balance. Others, who have much higher loans than I, are feeling a crush when it comes time to pay these loans back, especially when they're still looking for work in their chosen field. The Liberals have long been aware of this and been leaders in making PSE more affordable, and today's announcement is the first of its kind in this campaign.
I can't sit here and say that this turns the tide and I hope that Dion gets elected so that he can implement this plan. It's a good plank, one that I supported fully when I was a member of the Liberal Party and one I will always support, but there's still too many other problems with him and his party right now for me to endorse them.
I can't sit here and say that this turns the tide and I hope that Dion gets elected so that he can implement this plan. It's a good plank, one that I supported fully when I was a member of the Liberal Party and one I will always support, but there's still too many other problems with him and his party right now for me to endorse them.
Election 2008: Day 11
We open with our head-scratcher quote of the day, from Stephane Dion:
"I'm working for a majority. I'm working for a Liberal government that Canadians will support," Dion said, as he stood in the aisle with microphones and cameras in his face. "I'm very realistic. You need to have conviction to make changes that will be good for the country and good for your fellow citizens."
How he can be claiming to be "very realistic" and set the bar for a Liberal majority government is absolutely beyond me. Given that, much like his plane yesterday, Dion is having trouble getting off the ground and staying there, a majority isn't a bar, it's a dot to him.
In other news, the good folks at Elections Canada wasted our time for about 15 minutes yesterday, collecting all our info without actually checking their voters' list. Had they done so, they would have seen that they already have all our info. I was mildly amused by the whole thing, Tasha seemed less so. I almost believed Elizabeth May's assessment about Canadians' intelligence for a moment or two (see Stephen Taylor's blog for the reference).
"I'm working for a majority. I'm working for a Liberal government that Canadians will support," Dion said, as he stood in the aisle with microphones and cameras in his face. "I'm very realistic. You need to have conviction to make changes that will be good for the country and good for your fellow citizens."
How he can be claiming to be "very realistic" and set the bar for a Liberal majority government is absolutely beyond me. Given that, much like his plane yesterday, Dion is having trouble getting off the ground and staying there, a majority isn't a bar, it's a dot to him.
In other news, the good folks at Elections Canada wasted our time for about 15 minutes yesterday, collecting all our info without actually checking their voters' list. Had they done so, they would have seen that they already have all our info. I was mildly amused by the whole thing, Tasha seemed less so. I almost believed Elizabeth May's assessment about Canadians' intelligence for a moment or two (see Stephen Taylor's blog for the reference).
16 September 2008
Harper & His Credits
Today the Conservatives announced that, if re-elected, they will give a $5000 tax credit to all first-time homebuyers to help alleviate some of the costs involved. This will work out to a $750 tax rebate. Naturally, Conservative opponents are denouncing the move as either vote-buying or a worthless drop in the bucket (fortunately not both, since that would be contradictory) compared to the excessive costs of buying a home these days. As someone who looks at the real estate market today and sees a whole lot of numbers after the dollar sign, I like this move by the government. Of course $750 isn't a great amount relatively speaking, but here's why the move is brilliant from a conservative perspective.
1. It reinforces the buttress that it is not the government's job to buy you things or provide you with lavish rewards; they will, however, give you a modest chip-in to help you out so as to remain as uninvolved in your daily life as possible. It's the same concept as what was behind the child tax credit. Opponents famously derided that, yet not a single person I'd wager sent the cheque back once it came to their mailbox. Whereas the Liberals were touting a universal child care system, which would come at great cost in terms of setting up the infrastructure and then maintaining it, the Conservatives simply said, "Here's some money from my wallet to help you out a bit and give you the choice to look after your kids in the manner and form of your choice."
2. Conservatives believe that Canadians are taxed too heavily; giving some of that money back lowers that burden, thus giving them more money to spend and thus bolster the economy. If you spend your child care money buying beer and popcorn, fine, the liquor tax and the GST comes back to us in that form and you're boosting your local stores. If you choose to buy a new couch for your new home with your $750, that's a dandy little kick for a small business or a large chain store depending on where you buy from. In any event, you're contributing to the national productivity, giving Canadian workers employment and spending.
3. The retail politics of the move goes over well and reminds Canadians that the government hears their concerns about rising prices and does a little bit to ease the burden.
Let the critics go wild, and for whatever their reasons. These little credits that help people out at tax time are much appreciated by everybody that they give a little boost to. It's a staple of governments in this country to give little goodies out, and Harper has deftly utilized this system.
1. It reinforces the buttress that it is not the government's job to buy you things or provide you with lavish rewards; they will, however, give you a modest chip-in to help you out so as to remain as uninvolved in your daily life as possible. It's the same concept as what was behind the child tax credit. Opponents famously derided that, yet not a single person I'd wager sent the cheque back once it came to their mailbox. Whereas the Liberals were touting a universal child care system, which would come at great cost in terms of setting up the infrastructure and then maintaining it, the Conservatives simply said, "Here's some money from my wallet to help you out a bit and give you the choice to look after your kids in the manner and form of your choice."
2. Conservatives believe that Canadians are taxed too heavily; giving some of that money back lowers that burden, thus giving them more money to spend and thus bolster the economy. If you spend your child care money buying beer and popcorn, fine, the liquor tax and the GST comes back to us in that form and you're boosting your local stores. If you choose to buy a new couch for your new home with your $750, that's a dandy little kick for a small business or a large chain store depending on where you buy from. In any event, you're contributing to the national productivity, giving Canadian workers employment and spending.
3. The retail politics of the move goes over well and reminds Canadians that the government hears their concerns about rising prices and does a little bit to ease the burden.
Let the critics go wild, and for whatever their reasons. These little credits that help people out at tax time are much appreciated by everybody that they give a little boost to. It's a staple of governments in this country to give little goodies out, and Harper has deftly utilized this system.
Election 2008: Day 10
Nothing interesting to report on the local scene. I've yet to see any campaign materials around town--a few here and there for the municipal elections--there's nobody pounding the pavement yet, and nothing in the mail. You'd almost be unable to tell that there is, in fact, an election happening around here.
There's a lead story on the G&M website this morning that, if I were still a Liberal, would have me really questioning exactly what my party is doing. As it is, I question exactly what that party is doing. No major theme, Dion micromanaging communications strategy while at the same time not expressing one, and MPs musing openly whether they did make a big mistake (as many of us thought they did at the time) in choosing Dion as their leader. They're still expressing optimism but it's not in their own party or its leader, simply that somehow Harper will "go down" to defeat. It's still plenty early in this campaign but the Liberals need something major very soon that can gain traction with the public, or else it's going to be too little, too late if they want to take back power.
There's a lead story on the G&M website this morning that, if I were still a Liberal, would have me really questioning exactly what my party is doing. As it is, I question exactly what that party is doing. No major theme, Dion micromanaging communications strategy while at the same time not expressing one, and MPs musing openly whether they did make a big mistake (as many of us thought they did at the time) in choosing Dion as their leader. They're still expressing optimism but it's not in their own party or its leader, simply that somehow Harper will "go down" to defeat. It's still plenty early in this campaign but the Liberals need something major very soon that can gain traction with the public, or else it's going to be too little, too late if they want to take back power.
15 September 2008
Election 2008: Day 9
After the Rosamond Luke fiasco, the Tories have appointed another candidate, Ted Larsen. He's described as a 56-year old former reporter who now runs a rental property business. I have no idea who he is, though it's unlikely to matter as this is staunch NDP territory. The Liberals, for their part, have nominated Catherine Meade as their candidate. Ms. Meade, per the brief bio on Liberal.ca, is currently Chair of the S.O.G.I. (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) Section of the Canadian Bar Association – Nova Scotia. I have no idea who she is, though it's unlikely to matter as this is staunch NDP territory. So that's the local update.
Nationally, it looks like this week is going to revolve around Stephen Harper vs. Jack Layton, as both leaders have decided that they're done patronizing Stephane Dion and will now simply ignore him. I saw some devastating polls yesterday on the "leadership" theme that have Dion in a distant third place and only marginally ahead of Elizabeth May. Because leadership has been such a key buzzword in this campaign, this is a major blow to the optimism of the Liberals as they press forward. Layton is capitalizing on the hesitance of many Canadian women when it comes to Harper (remember the whole "The Women Are Angry!" campaign?) by pledging to raise funding for Status of Women Canada and reminding voters that the Conservatives cut $5M from the administrative budget a few years ago (but was silent on the fact that the Conservatives later RAISED the SWC budget by $10M) and stating that Harper would be "devastating" for women's equality in Canada. Now, I'll be the first to admit that this government has done little to actively promote women's equality since being elected and been dipping its toe into areas that may cause controversy on abortion rights, but I do not equate cutting a government program's funding with undermining equality under the law. It's not as if they're talking about disenfranchisement or regulating women back into the home. There are many women's issues where Harper can be clubbed but Layton's rhetoric is (as usual) over the top.
Nationally, it looks like this week is going to revolve around Stephen Harper vs. Jack Layton, as both leaders have decided that they're done patronizing Stephane Dion and will now simply ignore him. I saw some devastating polls yesterday on the "leadership" theme that have Dion in a distant third place and only marginally ahead of Elizabeth May. Because leadership has been such a key buzzword in this campaign, this is a major blow to the optimism of the Liberals as they press forward. Layton is capitalizing on the hesitance of many Canadian women when it comes to Harper (remember the whole "The Women Are Angry!" campaign?) by pledging to raise funding for Status of Women Canada and reminding voters that the Conservatives cut $5M from the administrative budget a few years ago (but was silent on the fact that the Conservatives later RAISED the SWC budget by $10M) and stating that Harper would be "devastating" for women's equality in Canada. Now, I'll be the first to admit that this government has done little to actively promote women's equality since being elected and been dipping its toe into areas that may cause controversy on abortion rights, but I do not equate cutting a government program's funding with undermining equality under the law. It's not as if they're talking about disenfranchisement or regulating women back into the home. There are many women's issues where Harper can be clubbed but Layton's rhetoric is (as usual) over the top.
11 September 2008
Election 2008: Day 5
So are the media flip-floppers now? They were right to exclude May from the debates initially given that the party of nutjobs she leads doesn't have an elected MP nor do they have official party status. If the leader of the Christian Heritage Party shows up at CTV's doorstep with a lawyer tomorrow, does he get in too? Harper was adroit in dropping his opposition to her participation, as it completely washes away May's absurd claim that he's afraid to debate her. It does, however, give the Greens a rare opportunity to show the country what they're really all about, something that ought to make most sensible Canadians understand why nobody has ever voted in sufficient numbers to elect one of these whackos to Parliament. On the other hand, it does mean that the Prime Minister of Canada will now have to face a two-pronged attack from both Dion and May; I'm sure there will be a lot of "Ms. May is absolutely correct" and "What my esteemed colleague from the Liberal Party says is right on" whenever one of them takes a shot at the government's record.
Not really up to talking about many of the other developments today. This day, as it has for the past 7 years now, has me in a pensive mood and generally feeling down. Hard to believe it's been that long already when all the images from that Tuesday morning in 2001 are still so vivid and fresh in my mind. They say that time heals all wounds, I still need more of it.
Not really up to talking about many of the other developments today. This day, as it has for the past 7 years now, has me in a pensive mood and generally feeling down. Hard to believe it's been that long already when all the images from that Tuesday morning in 2001 are still so vivid and fresh in my mind. They say that time heals all wounds, I still need more of it.
10 September 2008
Endgame in Afghanistan: 2011
Stephen Harper announced today that 2011 will be the end of Canada's participation in Afghanistan should the Conservatives be re-elected. Naturally, Liberal supporters on the Internet are saying that he's flip-flopping and committing that most egregious of sins, announcing a date that suddenly war will end. This is obviously a change in position, as Harper has long been of the view that conditions on the ground will determine when Canada can successfully withdraw its troops. My grave concern is that the benchmarks which were established earlier this week may not be met by 2011; should this indeed occur, does the Government of Canada simply wring its hands and leave the work for someone else (a dangerous concept given the depth of commitment shown by some of our NATO allies)? Of course, giving a deadline for these goals to be met gives our troops and development workers in Afghanistan a stronger sense of urgency to meet them. If a person knows that their term paper is due on October 25th, they'll plan accordingly (or write it entirely on October 24th) so that the objective of completing the paper by the 25th is achieved. Fortunately, projects such as building schools and increasing the sense of security Afghans feel is work that can't be done overnight, so the planning must begin in earnest in the near term.
This is a bold move by the Conservative leader. Whether it generates support from the academic and military communities that are invested very heavily in Afghanistan remains to be determined.
This is a bold move by the Conservative leader. Whether it generates support from the academic and military communities that are invested very heavily in Afghanistan remains to be determined.
Election 2008: Day 4
In the newly-minted absence of a Conservative or Liberal candidate here in Halifax, we now look at what's happening on Day 4 of the 2008 campaign.
I read an article in the Metro today that basically summed up what I've felt about "the environment" as an issue for many years now. It's become the new "Medicare", a rhetorical tool used by the Liberals to whack the Conservatives. Now, I'll grant it that even with such spiffy props as a Sharpie and a 5x7 index card, the Reform/Alliance never could overcome that beating. But eventually that weapon loses its potency. Enter "the environment." Liberals, ever since it became readily evident that they were going to be relegated to opposition status, have employed "the environment" as the centrepiece of their policy platform against the Conservatives. Stephane Dion has said that every day Stephen Harper is Prime Minister of Canada we edge closer to the abyss of environmental degradation beyond all redemption. People get riled up over the subject, newly conditioned to the idea that we're living in a "planet in peril" and it's all our fault and the only way to redeem ourselves is to give our money to the Russians and call it "buying carbon credits." It matters not to some that giving money to the Russians does not lower our GHG emissions one megatonne at all, it must be done in order to clear our conscience so we don't feel bad about driving our SUVs to work, to the grocery store, down the block to meet our friends. We want change! And the Liberals, despite never moving to implement the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol after signing it and adding a Canada-only addendum of even greater reductions in order to shame the Americans for not signing the Protocol at all, speak the language of change. It's working pretty well for Barack Obama (who, like many aspirants in national political capitals, is going to run headlong into a very hard and thick brick wall of institutional stasis), so they may as well give it a shot. Poll after poll in this country has demonstrated that Canadians want to help fix "the environment," but very few of them want to pay for it. When reality comes into contact with the rhetoric, suddenly the status quo seems preferable.
What does all of this mean? It means that "the environment" will be an issue in this election, but it won't decide the election. There may be many people who will vote against Harper because they feel his record and plan for the environment is insufficient, but there won't be enough of them. There may also turn out to be an equal number of voters who are non-plussed by the Green Shift and its promise to raise your taxes significantly in some areas while cutting them in others and thus vote against Dion. No, "the environment" will not be the key theme in this election, despite its rhetorical value for the centre-left parties to use against the Conservatives.
I read an article in the Metro today that basically summed up what I've felt about "the environment" as an issue for many years now. It's become the new "Medicare", a rhetorical tool used by the Liberals to whack the Conservatives. Now, I'll grant it that even with such spiffy props as a Sharpie and a 5x7 index card, the Reform/Alliance never could overcome that beating. But eventually that weapon loses its potency. Enter "the environment." Liberals, ever since it became readily evident that they were going to be relegated to opposition status, have employed "the environment" as the centrepiece of their policy platform against the Conservatives. Stephane Dion has said that every day Stephen Harper is Prime Minister of Canada we edge closer to the abyss of environmental degradation beyond all redemption. People get riled up over the subject, newly conditioned to the idea that we're living in a "planet in peril" and it's all our fault and the only way to redeem ourselves is to give our money to the Russians and call it "buying carbon credits." It matters not to some that giving money to the Russians does not lower our GHG emissions one megatonne at all, it must be done in order to clear our conscience so we don't feel bad about driving our SUVs to work, to the grocery store, down the block to meet our friends. We want change! And the Liberals, despite never moving to implement the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol after signing it and adding a Canada-only addendum of even greater reductions in order to shame the Americans for not signing the Protocol at all, speak the language of change. It's working pretty well for Barack Obama (who, like many aspirants in national political capitals, is going to run headlong into a very hard and thick brick wall of institutional stasis), so they may as well give it a shot. Poll after poll in this country has demonstrated that Canadians want to help fix "the environment," but very few of them want to pay for it. When reality comes into contact with the rhetoric, suddenly the status quo seems preferable.
What does all of this mean? It means that "the environment" will be an issue in this election, but it won't decide the election. There may be many people who will vote against Harper because they feel his record and plan for the environment is insufficient, but there won't be enough of them. There may also turn out to be an equal number of voters who are non-plussed by the Green Shift and its promise to raise your taxes significantly in some areas while cutting them in others and thus vote against Dion. No, "the environment" will not be the key theme in this election, despite its rhetorical value for the centre-left parties to use against the Conservatives.
09 September 2008
Easy Come, Easy Go
Just as quickly as we got a Conservative candidate here in Halifax, Rosamond Luke has been dropped from the roster of candidates because she has a criminal record. So we're back to having a Dipper and still waiting for the two other major parties to get a candidate in the field.
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