A Two-Horse National Race?

The course of the past 48-72 hours has not been particularly kind to the third and fourth parties. While the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition have been squaring off over tax cuts and health care, Gilles Duceppe has been discussing Quebec getting its own hockey team while Jack Layton has seen CAW put a knife in him by giving an endorsement to the Liberals. Layton did himself further damage earlier today by arguing that Canada should retaliate against US tariffs on softwood lumber by putting export tariffs on gas and oil. The logic that the best way to respond to abrogation of international agreements is to abrogate international agreements is fundamentally flawed. It deprives Canada of its moral superiority in this trade dispute, and it potentially leads the United States to look elsewhere. It has plenty of oil wells around the world (right, lefties?), it doesn't need Canadian oil to as great an extent as we need them to buy it from us. Statements such as this do nothing to boost Layton's image, and indeed harm him in his efforts to overcome the caricature of him as a car salesman/city councillor.

The national race is increasingly taking shape as being a two-horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Quebec may well go heavily in favour of the Bloc, but the ROC can still end up going either way. I also believe that, right now, the Tories have the momentum on their side. The GST announcement, their waiting times pledges, and today's announcement on minimum sentencing for drug offenders, these are all salient issues to Canadians and because Harper has been the one introducing these measures before the Liberals can get their planks unveiled, they are on the offensive. This is going to be a long campaign, of course, and there will likely be a number of momentum switches, but right now the big blue machine is riding high.