Future Prospects for the Liberal Party

In one of life's funny twists, Paul Martin the leadership candidate was the reason I joined the Liberal Party, but Paul Martin the leader was the reason I left it. The past year has been nothing but a string of disappointments, to the extent that I viewed Martin as having zero credibility on just about any issue. I am looking forward to the forthcoming leadership race, but I believe that two or three preconditions are necessary for any candidate to become the next Liberal Prime Minister:
1. It must be someone "clean," who cannot be identified as being in either the Chretien or Martin camps, otherwise the internecine warfare will continue.
2. It cannot be someone from Quebec, as the Liberal brand in that province is going to be reeling from Adscam for many months and perhaps years to come. This has an effect on both Quebecers and people outside of Quebec, and to reach out a new leader cannot have the stigma associated with them.
3. They must not take on the same persona of exemplifying the party or taking the heavy-handed approach of labelling Liberal Party values "Canadian values." That type of approach turns people off; many people I know who are progressives reject the Kyoto Protocol because it is simply unsustainable for Canada and wasn't based on rational decision-making, but rather photo optics.
4. The leader must have a strongly-defined set of core principles, explain them clearly, and not waffle on them in order to cater to the public opinion polls. I have said it, and so has Grit and many others, that Martin attempted to be all things to all people. In so doing, he ended up alienating many people. If a leader establishes a series of broadly-based principles, they can be many things to many people, and that increases the odds of catching swing voters much more than staking out a divisive position.
These are my recommendations. If I had to pick a handful of prominent Liberals who are potential candidates, who meet the requirements of my first two premises I would say: Michael Ignatieff, Frank McKenna, Belinda Stronach, and Maurizio Belivacqua. These are the folks that will be seeing their names thrown around a lot in the coming days and weeks, and we will see who emerges.

My greatest concern with some Liberals is that they are advocating a view that there will be another election within a year. As others in the world have already stated, the Liberal Party is broke, $34M in the hole. They got less than 6 million votes last night, meaning they will only receive about $10.5M from the $1.75 per vote formula this year. Once Harper rams through the FAA and clamps down on the corporate donations, the Liberals will be further hamstrung because they won't have Bay Street to rely upon anymore. They will remain in debt for some time, not to mention the other parties.
Also to be considered is voter fatigue. Canadians do not want to have to go through another 36 days of the same stuff that they've had to deal with in this campaign. I've read numerous comments about the dirtiness of this campaign, and people simply do not want their televisions, newspapers, etc., cluttered with more of this type of behaviour for a long time. Woe be to the party who brings about a premature end to this Parliament.
Also of some concern is this statement made by a prominent Martinite blogger: "the Conservatives really are not in any position to put their agenda through the House." Yes they are. They control the government, their members constitute the executive, and we have all seen in recent years the concentration of power in the executive. If a prime minister wants to pass legislation, he will make it happen. Being in a minority, in this instance, will not hamstring Harper because of what I have already mentioned. Even dealing from this position of only minor strength, he can still put the other parties over a barrel on the major planks of his agenda and anything that results in a matter of confidence.
This process to replace Martin will take at least 6 months to a full year. I would be truly shocked if there was a full Leadership Convention before September. It will take a few months after that to establish the new leader, rebuild the party internally and in the House of Commons to get them some real momentum going. They must not jump on the first opportunity to bring down Harper; patience is going to be the ultimate virtue for the Liberals in the coming months. Allow Harper to develop a record of governance, and in the areas in which he is found wanting, provide a POSITIVE alternative. I cannot stress the POSITIVE enough. I truly hope that future elections will be as policy-based as this was, minus the asinine negativity. If that happens, we can win again. Don't rush it. Rebuild. Refocus. Regain.